CURRICULUM VITAE

Tae-Hwy Lee

 

A.  ADDRESS

 

Department of Economics
University of California, Riverside

900 University Avenue
Riverside, California 92521-0427, USA

Phone: (951) 827-1509
Fax: (951) 827-5685

E-mail: taelee at ucr.edu

Web Page: http://faculty.ucr.edu/~taelee

 

B.  EDUCATION

 

Thesis Title: Essays on Multicointegration and Nonlinearity

Thesis Committee: Professors Clive GrangerValerie Ramey, Halbert White

 

 

C.  ACADEMIC EMPLOYMENT

 

 

D.  VISITING ACADEMIC POSITIONS

 

 

E.  TEACHING

 

University of California, Riverside (1995 - present):  

 

Statistics for Economics (STAT101/ECON101)

Introductory Econometrics I (ECON107)

Introductory Econometrics II (ECON108)

Forecasting in Business and Economics (ECON112)

Empirical Financial Economics (ECON136)

 

Mathematics for Economists (ECON206)

Econometric Methods I   (ECON205A)

Econometric Methods II  (ECON205B)

Econometric Methods III (ECON205C)

 

Advanced Econometrics I (Topics in Econometric Theory) (ECON285E)

Advanced Econometrics II (Advanced Time Series Topics) (ECON285F)

 

California Institute of Technology (2005-2006):  

 

 

F.  AREAS OF EXPERTISE

 

 

G.  CURRENT RESEARCH TOPICS

 

 

 

 

RESEARCH PAPERS

 

A.  PAPERS PUBLISHED

 

1.    “Investigation of Production, Sales and Inventory Relationships Using Multicointegration and Nonsymmetric Error Correction Models”, Journal of Applied Econometrics , 4, S145-159, December 1989, with Clive W.J. Granger.

 

2.    “Multicointegration”, Advances in Econometrics: Cointegration, Spurious Regression, and Unit Roots, edited by Thomas B. Fomby and George F. Rhodes, Jr., Vol. 8, 71-84, JAI Press Inc., 1990, with Clive W.J. Granger.

 

       Reprinted (1991) in Long-run Economic Relationships: Readings in Cointegration, Chapter 9, 179-190, edited by Robert F. Engle and Clive W. J. Granger, Oxford University  Press.

 

3.    “On the Predictive Power of the Spread between Spot and Forward Exchange Rates for Volatility”, Korean Economic Review, 8, 99-115, Summer 1992.

 

4.    “Stock-Flow Relationships for US Housing Construction”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 54, 419-430, August 1992.

 

5.    “Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Time Series Models: A Comparison of Neural Network Methods and Alternative Tests”, Journal of Econometrics, 56, 269-290, April 1993, with Halbert White and Clive W. J. Granger.

 

Reprinted (2001) in Essays in Econometrics: Collected Paper of Clive W.J. Granger , Volumes I: Spectral Analysis, Seasonality, Nonlinearity, Methodology, and Forecasting, edited by Eric Ghysels, Norman R. Swanson, and Mark W. Watson, Chapter 8, pp. 208-229, Cambridge University Press, Econometric Society Monograph Series No. 32.          

 

6.    “Uncertainty in Sales and Inventory Behavior in the US Trade Sectors”, Canadian Journal of Economics, 27, 129-142, February 1994, with Faik Koray.

 

7.    “Spread and Volatility in Spot and Forward Exchange Rates”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 13, 375-383, June 1994.

 

8.    “Disequilibrium and Uncertainty in Cointegrated Systems”, Economics Letters, 49, 147-155, July 1995.

 

9.    “Relative Power of the t Type Tests for Stationary and Unit Root Processes”, Journal of Time Series Analysis, 17, 37-47, January 1996, with Jesus Gonzalo.

 

10.  “Stochastic Trends and Fluctuations in National Income, Wages, and Profits”, Southern Economic Journal, 873-888, April 1996, with Faik Koray and Theodore Palivos.

 

11.  “Cointegration Tests with Conditional Heteroskedasticity”, Journal of Econometrics, 73(2), 401-410, August 1996, with Yiuman Tse.

 

12.  “International Linkages in Nikkei Stock Index Futures Markets”, Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, 4, 59-76, April 1996, with G. Geoffrey Booth and Yiuman Tse.

 

Reprinted (1998) in Volatility: New Techniques for Pricing Derivatives and Managing Financial Portfolios, Chapter 18, 285-294, edited by Robert Jarrow, Risk Publications, London. 

 

13.  “The International Transmission of Information in Eurodollar Futures Markets: A Continuously Trading Market Hypothesis”, Journal of International Money and Finance, 15, 447-465, August 1996, with Yiuman Tse and G. Geoffrey Booth.

 

14.  “Stock Adjustment for Multicointegrated Series”, Empirical Economics, 21(4), 633-639, 1996.

 

15.  “Transmission of Producers' Prices through Stages of Processing”, American Statistical Association, Proceedings  for  Survey Research Methods, 110-119, 1996, with Stuart Scott.

 

16.  “Some Pitfalls on Testing for Cointegration”, American Statistical Association, Proceedings for Business and  Economic  Statistics, 8-17, 1996, with Jesús Gonzalo. 

 

17.  “Pitfalls in Testing for Long Run Relationships”, Journal of Econometrics, 86(1), 129-154, September 1998, with Jesús Gonzalo. In the TOP 10 Most Requested Articles of the Journal of Econometrics 1997-1998.

 

18.  “Investigating Inflation Transmission by Stages of Processing”, in Cointegration, Causality, and Forecasting: A Festschrift in Honor of Clive W.J. Granger, edited by Robert Engle and Halbert White, Chapter 12, 283-300, August 1999, Oxford University Press, with Stuart Scott.

 

19.  “The Effect of Aggregation on Nonlinearity”, Econometric Reviews, 18(3), 259-269, August 1999, with Clive W.J. Granger.

 

20.  “Excess Holding Yields and Risk Premia in the Term Structure of Interest Rates”, Journal of Quantitative Economics, 15(1), 145-153, 1999.

 

21.  “On the Robustness of Cointegration Tests When Series Are Fractionally Integrated”, Journal of Applied Statistics , 27(7), 821-827, 2000, with Jesús Gonzalo. [pdf]

 

22.  “Neural Network Test and Nonparametric Kernel Test for Neglected Nonlinearity in Regression Models”, Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics, 4(4), 169-182, 2001. [pdf]

 

23.  “Modeling the Impact of Overnight Surprises on Intra-daily Stock Returns”, American Statistical Association, Proceedings for Business and Economic Statistics, 2001, with Giampiero Gallo and Yongmiao Hong. [pdf]

 

24.  “Nonparametric Bootstrap Tests for Neglected Nonlinearity in Time Series Regression Models”, Journal of Nonparametric Statistics, 13, 425-451, 2001, with Aman Ullah. [pdf]

 

25.  “Assessing the Risk Forecasts for Japanese Stock Market”, Japan and the World Economy, 14, 63-85, 2002, with Burak Saltoglu. [pdf]

 

26.  “Nonparametric Bootstrap Specification Testing in Econometric Models”, in Computer-Aided Econometrics, Chapter 15, edited by David Giles, Marcel Dekker, New York, pp. 451-477, 2003, with Aman Ullah. [pdf of the paper]  [contents of the book]

 

27.  “Inference on Predictability of Foreign Exchange Rates via Generalized Spectrum and Nonlinear Time Series Models”, Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1048-1062, November 2003, with Yongmiao Hong.  [pdf]  [link]

 

        Erratum (2004): There was a publisher’s error in the title of the paper, which was corrected in “Erratum”, Review of Economics and Statistics, August 2004, Vol. 86, No. 3: 840-840. [erratum] [link]

 

28.  “Diagnostic Checking for Adequacy of Nonlinear Time Series Models”, Econometric Theory, 19(6), 1065-1121, December 2003, with Yongmiao Hong. [link]

 

Award (2006): “The 2003-2005 Tjalling C. Koopmans Econometric Theory Prize” (for the three year period 2003-2005 inclusive). Announced in Econometric Theory, Vol. 22, No. 4, August 2006, pages 763-764. [pdf]

 

29.  “Forecasting Volatility: A Reality Check Based on Option Pricing, Utility Function, Value-at-Risk, and Predictive Likelihood”, International Journal of Forecasting, 20(4), 629-645, October-December 2004, with Gloria González-Rivera and Santosh Mishra. [pdf]

 

30.  “Asymmetric Predictive Abilities of Nonlinear Models for Stock Returns: Evidence from Density Forecast Comparison”, Advances in Econometrics, Volume 20, Part B, pages 41-62, January 2006, with Yong Bao. [pdf]

 

31.  “Evaluating Predictive Performance of Value-at-Risk Models in Emerging Markets: A Reality Check”, Journal of Forecasting, 25(2), 101-128, March 2006, with Yong Bao and Burak Saltoglu. [pdf]

 

32.  Bagging Binary and Quantile Predictors for Time Series”, Journal of Econometrics, Volume 135, Issues 1-2, November-December 2006, pages 465-497, with Yang Yang. [pdf]

 

33.  Comparing Density Forecast Models”, Journal of Forecasting, 26(3), 203-225, April 2007, with Yong Bao and Burak Saltoglu. [pdf]

 

         A previous version (2004) of this paper has been circulated with the title, “A Test for Density Forecast Comparison with Applications to Risk Management” [pdf]

 

34.  “Bagging Binary and Quantile Predictors for Time Series: Further Issues”, with Yang Yang. Forecasting in Presence of Structural Breaks and Model Uncertainty, edited by Mark E. Wohar and David E. Rapach, North Holland (Elsevier/Emerald) Publishers. Chapter 13, pages 477-534. May 2008. [pdf

 

35.  “Permanent and Transitory Components of GDP and Stock Prices: Further Analysis”, Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Volume 1, Issue 1, March 2008, pp. 105-120, with Jesús Gonzalo and Weiping Yang. [pdf]

 

36.  “Optimality of the RiskMetrics VaR Model”, with Gloria González-Rivera and Emre Yoldas, Finance Research Letters, Volume 4, Issue 3, September 2007, pages 137-145. [pdf]

 

37.  “Jumps in Cross-Sectional Rank and Expected Returns: A Mixture Model”, with Gloria González-Rivera and Santosh Mishra, Journal of Applied Econometrics, August 2008, Volume 23, Issue 5, pages 585-606. [pdf], [Supplemental Appendix]

 

38.  “Loss Functions in Time Series Forecasting”, forthcoming, International Encyclopedia of the Social Science, Editor: William A. Darity, Jr., 2nd edition. Macmillan Thomson Gale Publishers. [pdf]

 

39. “Copula-based Multivariate GARCH Models with Uncorrelated Dependent Errors”, with Xiangdong Long, forthcoming, Journal of Econometrics. [pdf]

 

40.  “Nonlinear Time Series in Financial Forecasting”, invited to contribute to a section for Finance and Econometrics in Encyclopedia of Complexity and Systems Science (2008), Springer Science, with Gloria González-Rivera. [pdf]

 

 

B.  PAPERS SUBMITTED

 

41.  “To Combine Forecasts or to Combine Information?” with Huiyu Huang. [pdf]

 

42.  “Forecasting Output Growth and Inflation: How to Use Information in the Yield Curve”, with Eric Hillebrand, Huiyu Huang and Canlin Li. [pdf

 

43.  “Forecasting Using High Frequency Financial Time Series”, with Huiyu Huang. [pdf]

 

44.  “Money-Income Granger-Causality in Quantiles”, with Weiping Yang.  [pdf]

 

45. “Let’s Do It Again: Bagging Equity Premium Predictors”, with Eric Hillebrand and Marcelo Medeiros. [pdf]

 

 

C.  PAPERS COMPLETED

 

46.  “Nominal Price Rigidity, Inflation Persistence, and Output Gap in Korea”, with Yongseung Jung and Weiping Yang. [pdf]

 

47.  “Dynamics of Inflation Rate: Comparison of New Keynesian Models via Simulated Density”, with Yongseung Jung and Weiping Yang. [pdf]

 

48.  “Comparison of New Open Economy Macroeconomic Models for Exchange Rate Fluctuations”, with Yongseung Jung and Weiping Yang. [pdf]

 

49.  “Granger-Causality in Quantiles between Financial Markets: Using Copula Approach”, with Weiping Yang. [pdf]

 

 

D.  PAPERS IN PROGRESS

 

50.  “Pairs Trading Strategy for Forecast Combination”, with Huiyu Huang and Canlin Li. [pdf]

 

51.  “Forecasting Using Supervised Factor Models”, with Yundong Tu. [pdf]

 

52.  “Let’s Do It Again: Bagging Inflation Forecasts”, with Eric Hillebrand and Marcelo Medeiros.

 

53.  “Bagging Realized Volatility”, with Eric Hillebrand and Marcelo Medeiros.

 

54.  “Bagging Multi-step Forecasts”, with Eric Hillebrand and Marcelo Medeiros.

 

55.  “Impulse Responses for Conditional Quantiles”, with Oscar Jorda.

 

56.  “Variable Selection for (Unbalanced) Panel Data Models via Cross-Validation and Generalized Information Criteria”, with Halbert White.

 

57.  “Forecasting with Threshold Models”, with Jesús Gonzalo.

 

58.  “Nonlinear Models versus Time Varying Coefficient Models?”

 

59.  “Granger-Causality in Quantiles between Oil and US Economy”, with Phillip Rothman and Dick van Dijk.

 

 

PROFESSIONAL ACTIVITY

 

 

A.  CONFERENCE PRESENTATIONS

 

 

B.  REFEREEING

 

 

 

C.  EDITORIAL BOARD

 

 

 

D.  INVITED LECTURES

 

 

 

E.  INVITED SEMINARS (alphabetical)

 

 

 

F.  Ph.D. DISSERTATION COMMITTEES

 

 

 

G.  CONSULTING SERVICES

 

 

 

H.  RESEARCH GRANTS

 

 

 

I.  INSTRUCTIONAL GRANTS

 

 

 

J.  TRAVEL GRANTS

 

 

 

K.  UNIVERSITY SERVICES

 

ˇ        Convener, Econometrics Colloquia

ˇ        Core/Field Coordinator, Econometrics

ˇ        Member, Ad hoc Committees for Merit Promotions

ˇ        Member, Ad hoc Committees for Promotions

ˇ        Chair, Econometrics Comprehensive Exam Committees

ˇ        Member, Econometrics Comprehensive Exam Committees

ˇ        Job Placement Director for Graduate Students

ˇ        Member, Graduate Affairs Committees

ˇ        Member, Faculty Recruiting Committee (labor economics)

ˇ        Member, Faculty Recruiting Committee (econometrics)

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